Nettet1. mai 1991 · In this paper, the optimal pool is presented when the data observed by the different members of the group are conditionally independent given θ. When the data … NettetThe two most widely used opinion pool methods are linear opinion pools and logarithmic opinion pools. Suppose we have n experts, and let pi(θ) represent expert …
Forecast uncertainty, disagreement, and the linear pool
Nettetcal method is the linear opinion pool, which involves taking a weighted linear average of the opinions [Cooke, 1991]. Several interpretations have been offered for the weights in … NettetDecision-makers often consult different experts to build reliable forecasts on variables of interest. Combining more opinions and calibrating them to maximize the forecast accuracy is consequently a crucial issue in several economic problems. This paper applies a Bayesian beta mixture model to derive a combined and calibrated density function … minh pham google scholar
Context-dependent representation of within- and between-model ...
NettetDownloadable! We retrospectively explore the effectiveness of various probabilistic opinion pools against a set of insider threat detection modeling data from a recently completed, multiyear, sponsored research effort. We explored four opinion pools: the linear opinion pool (likely the most popular), the beta-transformed linear opinion … Nettet18. nov. 2013 · One of the well-known problems with the linear opinion pool is that it can be poorly calibrated. It tends toward underconfidence as the crowd's diversity increases, … Nettet25. jan. 2024 · The linear opinion pool (LOP) is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of cumulative probabilities (or, equivalently, probability densities) across alternative predictions for a fixed x value (averaging in the ‘vertical direction’, figure 2a). minh phat 2 company ltd mifaco